Rita Costa

A statement is four sentences of signal wrapped in eleven of protection. Here is how to find the four.

Sentence one tells you what they did. Ignore it. It was priced a month ago.

The sentence that matters is whichever one changed from last time. Diff the two documents before you read either.

Do that for the last six decisions and the pattern is obvious enough to trade on.

Eleven calls, eleven misses, one thread. No edits, no quiet deletions.

The first was the big one and it was wrong for a reason worth writing down rather than a reason worth defending.

Most of the rest share a single fault: I was early and I called early a different word.

If you want the version of this account that never posts a loss, there are plenty of those. This is not one.

The headline number is a median of a sample that keeps changing shape. That is the whole problem.

Hold the mix constant and the picture reverses in three of the last five quarters.

Here is the series, the adjustment and the code, so you can disagree with the method rather than the conclusion.

None of this is a forecast. It is a request to stop quoting one number as though it were the market.